CALIFORNIA STATE UNIVERSITY LONG BEACH
PPA 696--RESEARCH METHODS:
BINGHAM & FELBINGER CH. 7
  1. BIBLIOGRAPHIC INFORMATION
    1. Author: R. B. Albritton & T. Witayapanyanon
    1. Title: Impacts of SSI: A Re-Analysis of Federal Welfare Policy
    1. Source: R. D. Bingham and C. L. Felbinger, Evaluation in Practice. New York: Longman, 1989, pp.113-126.

      2.  
  1. SUMMARY OF THE RESEARCH
    1. PROBLEM STATEMENT:
Did the SSI program change result in expanded coverage?
    1. BACKGROUND:
Do government programs have the intended effect, or are observed effects do to other factors?
    1. HYPOTHESIS:
The 1974 program change in SSI resulted in 1) expanded coverage for and participation by the age, blind, and disabled; and 2) increased benefit levels for participants.
    1. MEASUREMENT OF VARIABLES
      1. Dependent variable: Number of blind, aged, and disabled covered by SSI; average benefit
      1. Independent variable(s): Implementation of 1974 program change in SSI
      1. Control variable(s): n/a
    1. RESEARCH DESIGN:
A quasi-experimental design, using an interrupted time-series; and introducing a comparison group. Levels of participation in SSI (G-1) were compared to levels of participation in AFDC (G-2).

Group

 T1 T2 T3 T4 Policy 

Change

 T5 T6 T7 T8
G-1 O1 O2 O3 O4 X O5 O6 O7 O8
G-2 O1 O1 O1 O1 O1 O1 O1 O1
 
    1. SAMPLING:
37 years before the change and 13 years after the change were sampled for the elderly; 22 pre- and 13 post- for the disabled; comparable years were sampled for the AFDC program.
    1. INSTRUMENTATION:
Data gathered from federal government reports
    1. DATA COLLECTION/ETHICS:
Same government reports used for each sampled year
    1. DATA ANALYSIS:
ARIMA (autoregressive integrated moving averages) formulas used to compute trend lines for SSI before the policy change and after the change; also compares projected trend lines (based on pre-change data) with actual trend lines (based on post-change data)
    1. CONCLUSIONS:
The policy change increased the number of people who with access to SSI and increased the average monthly payment for beneficiaries. Using the AFDC data as a control, the SSI program changes were not due to non-program factors (e.g., history). However, unlike previous studies based on limited years of data, the effects were temporary and short-term.
  1. CRITIQUE
    1. Possible Threats to Internal Validity
      1. History:
controlled by comparing SSI participation to AFDC participation
      1. Maturation:
n/a
      1. Testing:
n/a
      1. Instrumentation:
no appreciable changes in government reporting over time
      1. Regression Artifact:
n/a
      1. Selection bias:
all relevant years were sampled
      1. Experimental Mortality:
n/a
      1. Design contamination:
n/a
    1. Possible Threats to External Validity
      1. unique program features:
program is a nation-wide entitlement program
      1. experimental arrangements:
n/a
      1. other threats:
n/a