PPA 670 PUBLIC POLICY ANALYSIS

VERIFYING, DEFINING, AND DETAILING THE PROBLEM

Problem Definition
Developing Problem Statements
Back-of-the-Envelope Calculations
Quick Decision Analysis
Political Analysis
First Cut Policy Analysis
 

PROBLEM DEFINITION

The first thing the policy analyst must do is to ask:
1) Does a problem exist?
2) Can anything be done about it?
3) Does the client have the power?
If the answers are no, then there is no point in doing a policy analysis.
 
Pitfalls in public policy problem definition:
1) accepting the client's definition of the problem
2) looking only for the simple and obvious
3) thinking that any and all problems need a public solution
4) confusing the need for short- versus long-term solutions
5) confusing the values of individuals versus collectivities
 
Don't Need Public Policies Do Need Public Policies
Individual problems Social problems
Widespread problems Serious problems
Relative problems Absolute problems
 

DEVELOPING PROBLEM STATEMENTS

In developing problem statements:
1) think about the problem
2) delineate the boundaries of the problem
3) develop a fact base
4) list goals and objectives for policy solutions
5) identify the policy envelope (key players)
6) develop preliminary costs and benefits
7) review the problem statement

BACK-OF-THE-ENVELOPE CALCULATIONS

    One of the first things a policy analyst will do is to try to get a handle on the possible dimensions of the problem and potential solutions. The analyst may ask,
1) How many people are we talking about?
2) What is the likely cost per unit of service?
3) How much of the target population can we serve?
4) How much do we have available to spend?
5) Will more staff be needed?
6) Will this impact the budget/tax rate?
7) What are the trends in this area?
8) What will happen if we do nothing?
    For example, try to estimate these parameters if half the children in the state are not receiving the required immunizations before beginning school. Start with the number of children in the state up to age 5. Which immunizations are required? How much does each one cost? How many children could realistically be reached? How much do we have available to spend? Could we get more from the Federal government? Will more state staff be needed, or can this be handled by the private/non-profit sector? Will this impact the budget/tax rate? What are the trends in this area--is the problem increasing or decreasing over time? What will happen if we do nothing?
 
The information for doing back-of-the-envelope calculations can come from
1) reference works
2) experts
3) past studies or quick research
4) informed guesses, extrapolation, rules of thumb, estimation, parallel reasoning, triangulation, etc.

QUICK DECISION ANALYSIS

    Quick decision analysis is a variation on the technique of making decision trees. Decision trees are ways of diagraming a problem, when the problem has more than one solution. It is a tool to help policy analysts see the logical alternatives to a problem.

POLITICAL ANALYSIS

    Policy analysts recognize that politics is important at all stages of the policy process, including policy analysis. There are a number of ways to communicate about potential political influences or factors that may impinge on the policy analysis. These techniques attempt to allow political factors to be treated like any other important considerations in policy analysis.

    The analyst may draw up a list of issues involved in defining the problem, and identify a number of potential political actors who have taken positions on those issues. A table can display the likely support or opposition of each group to each issue.

    For example, what are the issues involved in raising the age at which teens can get a driver's licence to 18? Which groups are likely to support (+) or oppose (-) problem definitions that focus on these issues?
 

Groups

 Lower teen auto accident, death & injury rates Hardship for teens who work or commute to school Lower insurance rates for family cars
M.A.D.D. + ? ?
Parents/Voters + - +
Insurance Lobby + - -
 

FIRST CUT POLICY ANALYSIS

    An issue paper is a study that is conducted in preparation of making a decision on whether or not to do a policy analysis. It describes the problem, the attendant issues, the political groups involved, and concludes whether or not a policy analysis will be feasible.

    A first cut policy analysis concentrates on identifying preliminary recommendations. It is a mini-policy analysis, conducted in a short period of time, using simple techniques. It forms the basis for a much more in-depth, complex, and thorough full-fledged policy analysis.

    Researched analysis refers to a more traditional research project, perhaps conducting a pilot study of several policy alternatives to generate concrete data on which to base recommendations. However, policy analysts rarely have the luxury of the time and resources needed, nor do they often work for someone who is far enough removed from the problem to resist pressures for a quick solution.