| Reverend Thomas Malthus |
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The Classic Model of Demographic Transition
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The model of demographic transition proposed in the 1940s describes the stages in the relationship between birth and death rates and the overall population change. The growth in the population due to changes in the birth and death rates is called the natural rate of population growth. The model of demographic transition suggested that a population's mortality and fertility would decline as a result of social and economic development. It predicted that all countries would over time go through four demographic transition stages. However with all models it has its limitations and the model has been developed to consider the demographic changes that many LDCs are experiencing.
The tables below summarise the factors affecting birth rates and death rates in each stage
| Stage 1 : Pre industrialisation: Stable population growth | Stage 2: Rapid population growth | Stage 3: Continued and decreasing population growth | Stage 4: Stable low population growth |
|---|---|---|---|
| High Birth rates | High Birth rates | Falling Birth rates | Low Birth rates |
| No or little Family
Planning Parents have many children because few survive Many children are needed to work the land Children are a sign of virility Some religious beliefs and cultural traditions encourage large families |
As stage 1 | Family Planning utilised , contraceptives,
abortions, sterilisation and other government incentives A lower infant mortality rates means less pressure to have children Increased mechanisation and industrialisation means less need for labour Increased desire for material possessions and less desire for large families Emancipation of women |
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| High Death Rates | Falling Death Rates | Death rates Low | Death rates Low |
| Disease and plague (e.g. bubonic, cholera,
kwashiorkor) Famine , uncertain food supplies and poor diet Poor hygiene, no piped clean water or sewage disposal |
Improved medical care e.g. vaccinations ,
hospitals, doctors, new drugs and scientific inventions Improved sanitation and waters supply Improvements in food production in terms of quality and quantity Improved transport to move food and doctors A decrease in child mortality |
As stage 2 |
The model predicts that eventually industrialised countries will have low stable population growth.