Thoughts on the lack of an ILL spike at the UC Libraries in light of Science's Sci-Hub survey

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Symbols count in article: 28k Reading time ≈ 25 mins.

Where are all the UC Libraries ILL requests post-cancellation?

Another Open Access Week has come and gone. Here at Long Beach, it triggered some interesting in-house conversations pertaining to the CSU system’s potential cancellation of Elsevier’s ScienceDirect subscription. Much of that was speculative and, so far, not particularly data driven as to the impacts on our campus. We will work out some figures eventually of course. But it got me thinking about a recent presentation by Günter Waibel from the California Digital Library at FORCE11 2019. Specifically, tweets from this presentation, as I was not able to attend.

So what gives? An estimated demand for Elsevier ILLs of 20,785 based on pre-cancellation usage and a realized ILL demand of 4,238 request for Elsevier content is a large discrepancy. There are several possibilities, which aren’t mutually exclusive.

  • Faculty aren’t reading Elsevier content post-cancellation
    • No interest, or solidarity motives
    • They get by with legally available summaries and abstracts (I’d like to believe this does not happen but given that Letrud K, & Hernes S (2019) showed in an analysis of ‘affirmative citation bias’ that indeed many things that are cited are not read in their entirety, I find it plausible.)
  • They somehow substitute other articles for the desired Elsevier content (Thinking about this is difficult because we typically model each article as a unique good which has typically been monopolized by a publisher.)
    • See the abstract theory immediately above
    • They engage in satisficing behavior and therefore read/cite more non-Elsevier content as substitution sources
  • Faculty are reading Elsevier content at similar rates post-cancellation as they were pre-cancellation, via non-library extra-legal means
    • Email
    • Social media
    • Sci-Hub

These are all empirical hypotheses, with varying degrees of difficulty involved in determining what actually is happening. I’m willing to be persuaded about any one of these possibilities, but they got me thinking about the survey that John Travis from Science ran in 2016 about Sci-Hub.

On the social media theory, I note that Reddit’s r/Scholar board did experience a large spike in membership growth post-cancellation but the date 2019-06-12 (502) didn’t correspond to any UC system press releases posted on the web, perhaps it was a day an email circulated? I don’t know. Also, it appears that the metrics site that I use for this count had some problems with their daily count data for much of 2018. So perhaps that spike was related to that stagnation. The total subscriber count did experience an increase in the trend line during 2018, so I am hesitant to rule this out entirely but I would look for the big increase in 2019 if it came from UC faculty. (Or perhaps those who moved to r/Scholar are all very proactive and wanted to get acquainted with the norms of the board prior to losing library access?)

Daily Subscriber Growth

Reddit Metrics data for r/Scholar daily

Total Subscribers

Reddit Metrics data for r/Scholar total

Data for r/Scholar pulled from Reddit Metrics

As for Twitter and #IcanhazPDF, there are a scant number of tweets in 2019 mentioning the UC system and using the hashtag. I do not find that to be indicative of a groundswell of attention to that informal network from people at the UCs.

So, assuming the folks in the UC system are still reading Elsevier content at all, this leaves us with email and Sci-Hub. The email hypothesis is pretty difficult to investigate and Sci-Hub is super easy to use, so my bet is that folks are using it. (Also worth noting is that Sci-Hub was explicitly mentioned in the UC’s Alternative Access to Elsevier Articles documentation.) Along those lines, I think that the data from John Travis’ survey in Science can illuminate this a bit until someone does either traffic analysis (presumably with IP data supplied by Alexandra Elbakyan) or citation analysis of publications coming from UC scholars comparing pre- and post- cancellation rates of citing paywalled Elsevier articles. John kindly provided me with the raw data in 2016 which I used a bit of in my own research. Below I present my number crunching and note the highlights in the wrap up section.

Correlation

Are there any noteworthy correlations between the variables in the data? This was the first question I asked myself up on seeing that Science had run the survey and the reason I asked John for the raw data.

The data was a mix of nominal and ordinal variables (with one string) which I imported into SPSS for analysis. Checking for normality in SPSS revealed that a majority of the variables failed the test, so running the usual statistics on the data set was not going to work. After spending some time on Wikipedia and the Stats section of Stack Overflow, I determined that Kendall’s Tau was a conservative measure of correlation to proceed with.

Below, we can see the answer to my initial question: not really. The only thing that jumps out is a weak positive correlation of .314 between “Have you used Sci-Hub, and if so, how often?” (ordinal: Never = 0, A few times = 1, Daily or weekly = 2) and “Have you obtained a pirated journal article, through Sci-Hub or other means, despite having access to it in some manner via a university library or institutional subscription?” (nominal: No = 0, Yes = 1). That rather lackluster finding was not particularly interesting, so I decided to dig deeper and look at the crosstabs, which are farther below. Perhaps the most interesting finding other than the headline ones pointed out by Science, was that there was not even a weak correlation between age and any of the other variables. A priori I didn’t expect any strong relationships here but the absence of even weak correlation between “Do you think it is wrong to download pirated papers?” and age and “Do you think SciHub will disrupt the traditional science publishing industry?” and age surprised me.

Crosstabs

Below I present all the cross tabulations that I ran. Most did not strike me as particularly noteworthy, which is why I only presented a few of them in the presentation I did about guerrilla access for UC Riverside in 2016. But in case others want to dig in here or build on this, I have included tables for all of the variables crossed against “Have you used Sci-Hub, and if so, how often?” and “What’s the primary reason you use Sci-Hub or other pirated article repositories?”.

Do you think it is wrong to download pirated papers? * Have you used Sci-Hub, and if so, how often? Crosstabulation

Do you think it is wrong to download pirated papers? * Have you used Sci-Hub, and if so, how often? Crosstabulation
  Have you used Sci-Hub, and if so, how often? Total
Never A few times Daily or weekly
Do you think it is wrong to download pirated papers? No Count 3742 3210 2538 9490
% within Do you think it is wrong to download pirated papers? 39.4% 33.8% 26.7% 100.0%
% within Have you used Sci-Hub, and if so, how often? 84.5% 89.3% 91.4% 87.9%
% of Total 34.6% 29.7% 23.5% 87.9%
Yes Count 689 383 238 1310
% within Do you think it is wrong to download pirated papers? 52.6% 29.2% 18.2% 100.0%
% within Have you used Sci-Hub, and if so, how often? 15.5% 10.7% 8.6% 12.1%
% of Total 6.4% 3.5% 2.2% 12.1%
Total Count 4431 3593 2776 10800
% within Do you think it is wrong to download pirated papers? 41.0% 33.3% 25.7% 100.0%
% within Have you used Sci-Hub, and if so, how often? 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
% of Total 41.0% 33.3% 25.7% 100.0%

Have you used other repositories of pirated journal articles, or used the twitter hashtag #IcanhazPDF to obtain a paper. * Have you used Sci-Hub, and if so, how often? Crosstabulation

Have you used other repositories of pirated journal articles, or used the twitter hashtag #IcanhazPDF to obtain a paper. * Have you used Sci-Hub, and if so, how often? Crosstabulation
  Have you used Sci-Hub, and if so, how often? Total
Never A few times Daily or weekly
Have you used other repositories of pirated journal articles, or used the twitter hashtag #IcanhazPDF to obtain a paper. No Count 3301 2438 1816 7555
% within Have you used other repositories of pirated journal articles, or used the twitter hashtag #IcanhazPDF to obtain a paper. 43.7% 32.3% 24.0% 100.0%
% within Have you used Sci-Hub, and if so, how often? 74.4% 67.9% 65.9% 70.1%
% of Total 30.6% 22.6% 16.8% 70.1%
Yes Count 763 902 766 2431
% within Have you used other repositories of pirated journal articles, or used the twitter hashtag #IcanhazPDF to obtain a paper. 31.4% 37.1% 31.5% 100.0%
% within Have you used Sci-Hub, and if so, how often? 17.2% 25.1% 27.8% 22.5%
% of Total 7.1% 8.4% 7.1% 22.5%
Not applicable Count 373 250 174 797
% within Have you used other repositories of pirated journal articles, or used the twitter hashtag #IcanhazPDF to obtain a paper. 46.8% 31.4% 21.8% 100.0%
% within Have you used Sci-Hub, and if so, how often? 8.4% 7.0% 6.3% 7.4%
% of Total 3.5% 2.3% 1.6% 7.4%
Total Count 4437 3590 2756 10783
% within Have you used other repositories of pirated journal articles, or used the twitter hashtag #IcanhazPDF to obtain a paper. 41.1% 33.3% 25.6% 100.0%
% within Have you used Sci-Hub, and if so, how often? 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
% of Total 41.1% 33.3% 25.6% 100.0%

Have you obtained a pirated journal article, through Sci-Hub or other means, despite having access to it in some manner via a university library or institutional subscription? * Have you used Sci-Hub, and if so, how often? Crosstabulation

Have you obtained a pirated journal article, through Sci-Hub or other means, despite having access to it in some manner via a university library or institutional subscription? * Have you used Sci-Hub, and if so, how often? Crosstabulation
  Have you used Sci-Hub, and if so, how often? Total
Never A few times Daily or weekly
Have you obtained a pirated journal article, through Sci-Hub or other means, despite having access to it in some manner via a university library or institutional subscription? No Count 3605 1972 1205 6782
% within Have you obtained a pirated journal article, through Sci-Hub or other means, despite having access to it in some manner via a university library or institutional subscription? 53.2% 29.1% 17.8% 100.0%
% within Have you used Sci-Hub, and if so, how often? 81.9% 55.1% 43.7% 63.1%
% of Total 33.6% 18.4% 11.2% 63.1%
Yes Count 798 1608 1554 3960
% within Have you obtained a pirated journal article, through Sci-Hub or other means, despite having access to it in some manner via a university library or institutional subscription? 20.2% 40.6% 39.2% 100.0%
% within Have you used Sci-Hub, and if so, how often? 18.1% 44.9% 56.3% 36.9%
% of Total 7.4% 15.0% 14.5% 36.9%
Total Count 4403 3580 2759 10742
% within Have you obtained a pirated journal article, through Sci-Hub or other means, despite having access to it in some manner via a university library or institutional subscription? 41.0% 33.3% 25.7% 100.0%
% within Have you used Sci-Hub, and if so, how often? 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
% of Total 41.0% 33.3% 25.7% 100.0%

What’s the primary reason you use Sci-Hub or other pirated article repositories? * Have you used Sci-Hub, and if so, how often? Crosstabulation

What’s the primary reason you use Sci-Hub or other pirated article repositories? * Have you used Sci-Hub, and if so, how often? Crosstabulation
  Have you used Sci-Hub, and if so, how often? Total
Never A few times Daily or weekly
What’s the primary reason you use Sci-Hub or other pirated article repositories? Other (please specify) Count 528 198 155 881
% within What’s the primary reason you use Sci-Hub or other pirated article repositories? 59.9% 22.5% 17.6% 100.0%
% within Have you used Sci-Hub, and if so, how often? 15.0% 5.5% 5.6% 8.9%
% of Total 5.4% 2.0% 1.6% 8.9%
I don’t have any access to the papers Count 1348 2043 1640 5031
% within What’s the primary reason you use Sci-Hub or other pirated article repositories? 26.8% 40.6% 32.6% 100.0%
% within Have you used Sci-Hub, and if so, how often? 38.3% 57.1% 59.2% 51.0%
% of Total 13.7% 20.7% 16.6% 51.0%
Convenience--It’s easier to use than the authentication systems provided by the publishers or my libraries Count 488 640 540 1668
% within What’s the primary reason you use Sci-Hub or other pirated article repositories? 29.3% 38.4% 32.4% 100.0%
% within Have you used Sci-Hub, and if so, how often? 13.9% 17.9% 19.5% 16.9%
% of Total 4.9% 6.5% 5.5% 16.9%
I object to the profits publishers make off academics Count 1151 700 435 2286
% within What’s the primary reason you use Sci-Hub or other pirated article repositories? 50.3% 30.6% 19.0% 100.0%
% within Have you used Sci-Hub, and if so, how often? 32.7% 19.5% 15.7% 23.2%
% of Total 11.7% 7.1% 4.4% 23.2%
Total Count 3515 3581 2770 9866
% within What’s the primary reason you use Sci-Hub or other pirated article repositories? 35.6% 36.3% 28.1% 100.0%
% within Have you used Sci-Hub, and if so, how often? 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
% of Total 35.6% 36.3% 28.1% 100.0%

Do you think SciHub will disrupt the traditional science publishing industry? * Have you used Sci-Hub, and if so, how often? Crosstabulation

Do you think SciHub will disrupt the traditional science publishing industry? * Have you used Sci-Hub, and if so, how often? Crosstabulation
  Have you used Sci-Hub, and if so, how often? Total
Never A few times Daily or weekly
Do you think SciHub will disrupt the traditional science publishing industry? No Count 1484 1397 1166 4047
% within Do you think SciHub will disrupt the traditional science publishing industry? 36.7% 34.5% 28.8% 100.0%
% within Have you used Sci-Hub, and if so, how often? 34.0% 39.0% 42.4% 37.8%
% of Total 13.9% 13.1% 10.9% 37.8%
Yes Count 2879 2182 1586 6647
% within Do you think SciHub will disrupt the traditional science publishing industry? 43.3% 32.8% 23.9% 100.0%
% within Have you used Sci-Hub, and if so, how often? 66.0% 61.0% 57.6% 62.2%
% of Total 26.9% 20.4% 14.8% 62.2%
Total Count 4363 3579 2752 10694
% within Do you think SciHub will disrupt the traditional science publishing industry? 40.8% 33.5% 25.7% 100.0%
% within Have you used Sci-Hub, and if so, how often? 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
% of Total 40.8% 33.5% 25.7% 100.0%

How old are you? * Have you used Sci-Hub, and if so, how often? Crosstabulation

How old are you? * Have you used Sci-Hub, and if so, how often? Crosstabulation
  Have you used Sci-Hub, and if so, how often? Total
Never A few times Daily or weekly
How old are you? 25 and under Count 1096 957 762 2815
% within How old are you? 38.9% 34.0% 27.1% 100.0%
% within Have you used Sci-Hub, and if so, how often? 24.9% 26.6% 27.5% 26.1%
% of Total 10.2% 8.9% 7.1% 26.1%
26-35 Count 1797 1732 1471 5000
% within How old are you? 35.9% 34.6% 29.4% 100.0%
% within Have you used Sci-Hub, and if so, how often? 40.8% 48.2% 53.1% 46.4%
% of Total 16.7% 16.1% 13.7% 46.4%
36-50 Count 1007 680 418 2105
% within How old are you? 47.8% 32.3% 19.9% 100.0%
% within Have you used Sci-Hub, and if so, how often? 22.9% 18.9% 15.1% 19.5%
% of Total 9.4% 6.3% 3.9% 19.5%
51 or older Count 502 226 120 848
% within How old are you? 59.2% 26.7% 14.2% 100.0%
% within Have you used Sci-Hub, and if so, how often? 11.4% 6.3% 4.3% 7.9%
% of Total 4.7% 2.1% 1.1% 7.9%
Total Count 4402 3595 2771 10768
% within How old are you? 40.9% 33.4% 25.7% 100.0%
% within Have you used Sci-Hub, and if so, how often? 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
% of Total 40.9% 33.4% 25.7% 100.0%

Do you think it is wrong to download pirated papers? * What’s the primary reason you use Sci-Hub or other pirated article repositories? Crosstabulation

Do you think it is wrong to download pirated papers? * What’s the primary reason you use Sci-Hub or other pirated article repositories? Crosstabulation
  What’s the primary reason you use Sci-Hub or other pirated article repositories? Total
Other (please specify) I don’t have any access to the papers Convenience--It’s easier to use than the authentication systems provided by the publishers or my libraries I object to the profits publishers make off academics
Do you think it is wrong to download pirated papers? No Count 680 4454 1485 2177 8796
% within Do you think it is wrong to download pirated papers? 7.7% 50.6% 16.9% 24.7% 100.0%
% within What’s the primary reason you use Sci-Hub or other pirated article repositories? 77.7% 88.8% 89.3% 95.4% 89.4%
% of Total 6.9% 45.3% 15.1% 22.1% 89.4%
Yes Count 195 564 178 105 1042
% within Do you think it is wrong to download pirated papers? 18.7% 54.1% 17.1% 10.1% 100.0%
% within What’s the primary reason you use Sci-Hub or other pirated article repositories? 22.3% 11.2% 10.7% 4.6% 10.6%
% of Total 2.0% 5.7% 1.8% 1.1% 10.6%
Total Count 875 5018 1663 2282 9838
% within Do you think it is wrong to download pirated papers? 8.9% 51.0% 16.9% 23.2% 100.0%
% within What’s the primary reason you use Sci-Hub or other pirated article repositories? 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
% of Total 8.9% 51.0% 16.9% 23.2% 100.0%

Have you used Sci-Hub, and if so, how often? * What’s the primary reason you use Sci-Hub or other pirated article repositories? Crosstabulation

Have you used Sci-Hub, and if so, how often? * What’s the primary reason you use Sci-Hub or other pirated article repositories? Crosstabulation
  What’s the primary reason you use Sci-Hub or other pirated article repositories? Total
Other (please specify) I don’t have any access to the papers Convenience--It’s easier to use than the authentication systems provided by the publishers or my libraries I object to the profits publishers make off academics
Have you used Sci-Hub, and if so, how often? Never Count 528 1348 488 1151 3515
% within Have you used Sci-Hub, and if so, how often? 15.0% 38.3% 13.9% 32.7% 100.0%
% within What’s the primary reason you use Sci-Hub or other pirated article repositories? 59.9% 26.8% 29.3% 50.3% 35.6%
% of Total 5.4% 13.7% 4.9% 11.7% 35.6%
A few times Count 198 2043 640 700 3581
% within Have you used Sci-Hub, and if so, how often? 5.5% 57.1% 17.9% 19.5% 100.0%
% within What’s the primary reason you use Sci-Hub or other pirated article repositories? 22.5% 40.6% 38.4% 30.6% 36.3%
% of Total 2.0% 20.7% 6.5% 7.1% 36.3%
Daily or weekly Count 155 1640 540 435 2770
% within Have you used Sci-Hub, and if so, how often? 5.6% 59.2% 19.5% 15.7% 100.0%
% within What’s the primary reason you use Sci-Hub or other pirated article repositories? 17.6% 32.6% 32.4% 19.0% 28.1%
% of Total 1.6% 16.6% 5.5% 4.4% 28.1%
Total Count 881 5031 1668 2286 9866
% within Have you used Sci-Hub, and if so, how often? 8.9% 51.0% 16.9% 23.2% 100.0%
% within What’s the primary reason you use Sci-Hub or other pirated article repositories? 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
% of Total 8.9% 51.0% 16.9% 23.2% 100.0%

Have you used other repositories of pirated journal articles, or used the twitter hashtag #IcanhazPDF to obtain a paper. * What’s the primary reason you use Sci-Hub or other pirated article repositories? Crosstabulation

Have you used other repositories of pirated journal articles, or used the twitter hashtag #IcanhazPDF to obtain a paper. * What’s the primary reason you use Sci-Hub or other pirated article repositories? Crosstabulation
  What’s the primary reason you use Sci-Hub or other pirated article repositories? Total
Other (please specify) I don’t have any access to the papers Convenience--It’s easier to use than the authentication systems provided by the publishers or my libraries I object to the profits publishers make off academics
Have you used other repositories of pirated journal articles, or used the twitter hashtag #IcanhazPDF to obtain a paper. No Count 669 3372 1055 1575 6671
% within Have you used other repositories of pirated journal articles, or used the twitter hashtag #IcanhazPDF to obtain a paper. 10.0% 50.5% 15.8% 23.6% 100.0%
% within What’s the primary reason you use Sci-Hub or other pirated article repositories? 76.5% 67.3% 63.4% 69.0% 67.9%
% of Total 6.8% 34.3% 10.7% 16.0% 67.9%
Yes Count 128 1302 475 502 2407
% within Have you used other repositories of pirated journal articles, or used the twitter hashtag #IcanhazPDF to obtain a paper. 5.3% 54.1% 19.7% 20.9% 100.0%
% within What’s the primary reason you use Sci-Hub or other pirated article repositories? 14.6% 26.0% 28.6% 22.0% 24.5%
% of Total 1.3% 13.2% 4.8% 5.1% 24.5%
Not applicable Count 77 337 133 205 752
% within Have you used other repositories of pirated journal articles, or used the twitter hashtag #IcanhazPDF to obtain a paper. 10.2% 44.8% 17.7% 27.3% 100.0%
% within What’s the primary reason you use Sci-Hub or other pirated article repositories? 8.8% 6.7% 8.0% 9.0% 7.7%
% of Total 0.8% 3.4% 1.4% 2.1% 7.7%
Total Count 874 5011 1663 2282 9830
% within Have you used other repositories of pirated journal articles, or used the twitter hashtag #IcanhazPDF to obtain a paper. 8.9% 51.0% 16.9% 23.2% 100.0%
% within What’s the primary reason you use Sci-Hub or other pirated article repositories? 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
% of Total 8.9% 51.0% 16.9% 23.2% 100.0%

Have you obtained a pirated journal article, through Sci-Hub or other means, despite having access to it in some manner via a university library or institutional subscription? * What’s the primary reason you use Sci-Hub or other pirated article repositories? Crosstabulation

Have you obtained a pirated journal article, through Sci-Hub or other means, despite having access to it in some manner via a university library or institutional subscription? * What’s the primary reason you use Sci-Hub or other pirated article repositories? Crosstabulation
  What’s the primary reason you use Sci-Hub or other pirated article repositories? Total
Other (please specify) I don’t have any access to the papers Convenience--It’s easier to use than the authentication systems provided by the publishers or my libraries I object to the profits publishers make off academics
Have you obtained a pirated journal article, through Sci-Hub or other means, despite having access to it in some manner via a university library or institutional subscription? No Count 656 3602 315 1312 5885
% within Have you obtained a pirated journal article, through Sci-Hub or other means, despite having access to it in some manner via a university library or institutional subscription? 11.1% 61.2% 5.4% 22.3% 100.0%
% within What’s the primary reason you use Sci-Hub or other pirated article repositories? 74.7% 71.9% 19.0% 57.9% 60.0%
% of Total 6.7% 36.7% 3.2% 13.4% 60.0%
Yes Count 222 1408 1342 954 3926
% within Have you obtained a pirated journal article, through Sci-Hub or other means, despite having access to it in some manner via a university library or institutional subscription? 5.7% 35.9% 34.2% 24.3% 100.0%
% within What’s the primary reason you use Sci-Hub or other pirated article repositories? 25.3% 28.1% 81.0% 42.1% 40.0%
% of Total 2.3% 14.4% 13.7% 9.7% 40.0%
Total Count 878 5010 1657 2266 9811
% within Have you obtained a pirated journal article, through Sci-Hub or other means, despite having access to it in some manner via a university library or institutional subscription? 8.9% 51.1% 16.9% 23.1% 100.0%
% within What’s the primary reason you use Sci-Hub or other pirated article repositories? 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
% of Total 8.9% 51.1% 16.9% 23.1% 100.0%

Do you think SciHub will disrupt the traditional science publishing industry? * What’s the primary reason you use Sci-Hub or other pirated article repositories? Crosstabulation

Do you think SciHub will disrupt the traditional science publishing industry? * What’s the primary reason you use Sci-Hub or other pirated article repositories? Crosstabulation
  What’s the primary reason you use Sci-Hub or other pirated article repositories? Total
Other (please specify) I don’t have any access to the papers Convenience--It’s easier to use than the authentication systems provided by the publishers or my libraries I object to the profits publishers make off academics
Do you think SciHub will disrupt the traditional science publishing industry? No Count 301 2164 639 649 3753
% within Do you think SciHub will disrupt the traditional science publishing industry? 8.0% 57.7% 17.0% 17.3% 100.0%
% within What’s the primary reason you use Sci-Hub or other pirated article repositories? 34.7% 43.3% 38.7% 28.5% 38.3%
% of Total 3.1% 22.1% 6.5% 6.6% 38.3%
Yes Count 566 2838 1014 1627 6045
% within Do you think SciHub will disrupt the traditional science publishing industry? 9.4% 46.9% 16.8% 26.9% 100.0%
% within What’s the primary reason you use Sci-Hub or other pirated article repositories? 65.3% 56.7% 61.3% 71.5% 61.7%
% of Total 5.8% 29.0% 10.3% 16.6% 61.7%
Total Count 867 5002 1653 2276 9798
% within Do you think SciHub will disrupt the traditional science publishing industry? 8.8% 51.1% 16.9% 23.2% 100.0%
% within What’s the primary reason you use Sci-Hub or other pirated article repositories? 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
% of Total 8.8% 51.1% 16.9% 23.2% 100.0%

How old are you? * What’s the primary reason you use Sci-Hub or other pirated article repositories? Crosstabulation

How old are you? * What’s the primary reason you use Sci-Hub or other pirated article repositories? Crosstabulation
  What’s the primary reason you use Sci-Hub or other pirated article repositories? Total
Other (please specify) I don’t have any access to the papers Convenience--It’s easier to use than the authentication systems provided by the publishers or my libraries I object to the profits publishers make off academics
How old are you? 25 and under Count 181 1324 535 575 2615
% within How old are you? 6.9% 50.6% 20.5% 22.0% 100.0%
% within What’s the primary reason you use Sci-Hub or other pirated article repositories? 20.8% 26.3% 32.3% 25.2% 26.6%
% of Total 1.8% 13.5% 5.4% 5.8% 26.6%
26-35 Count 336 2517 762 1044 4659
% within How old are you? 7.2% 54.0% 16.4% 22.4% 100.0%
% within What’s the primary reason you use Sci-Hub or other pirated article repositories? 38.5% 50.1% 46.0% 45.8% 47.4%
% of Total 3.4% 25.6% 7.7% 10.6% 47.4%
36-50 Count 217 892 287 480 1876
% within How old are you? 11.6% 47.5% 15.3% 25.6% 100.0%
% within What’s the primary reason you use Sci-Hub or other pirated article repositories? 24.9% 17.7% 17.3% 21.0% 19.1%
% of Total 2.2% 9.1% 2.9% 4.9% 19.1%
51 or older Count 138 293 73 182 686
% within How old are you? 20.1% 42.7% 10.6% 26.5% 100.0%
% within What’s the primary reason you use Sci-Hub or other pirated article repositories? 15.8% 5.8% 4.4% 8.0% 7.0%
% of Total 1.4% 3.0% 0.7% 1.9% 7.0%
Total Count 872 5026 1657 2281 9836
% within How old are you? 8.9% 51.1% 16.8% 23.2% 100.0%
% within What’s the primary reason you use Sci-Hub or other pirated article repositories? 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
% of Total 8.9% 51.1% 16.8% 23.2% 100.0%

Wrap up

The first thing to say is that obviously the Science survey and UC faculty are two different populations and so we shouldn’t extrapolate the findings from the one to the other. With that said, my instinct is to assume that the dedicated Sci-Hub users motivated by distaste of commercial publishers were probably already using it prior to the Elsevier cancellation (and these people are real though small in number as Carolyn Gardner and I demonstrated here ). So, knowing that there weren’t any strong correlates of Sci-Hub use within the survey, and with the additional assumption that the dedicated scholcommies were already users, it seems the place to look in the crosstabs is at the ‘I don’t have any access to the papers’ and the ‘Convenience–It’s easier to use than the authentication systems provided by the publishers or my libraries’ responses. With cancellation, UC Faculty (and possibly CSU Faculty soon) are de facto dropped into the ‘I don’t have any access to the papers’ category - the overwhelming reason for people to use Sci-Hub. The ‘Convenience–It’s easier to use than the authentication systems provided by the publishers or my libraries’ question did not address ILL so we actually should not use it to inform speculation about the discrepancy in the UC ILL figures. (Though in unpublished raw data from the paper with Carolyn Gardner linked above it was very clear that some scholars are unhappy with the ILL systems their libraries provide.)

Since we can apparently rule out a big surge in social media providing access post-cancellation, and since the UC ILL figures are much lower than anticipated, if UC faculty are continuing to cite Elsevier publications in their work (a fact which remains to be demonstrated), there seem to be only 2 possibilities:

  • They somehow “substitute” for the desired Elsevier content
  • They are using Sci-Hub

I’m hoping that someone will do empirical work on citation patters of UC faculty post-cancellation. I think we could learn a lot about both the role libraries can play in a world where Sci-Hub exists and the information seeking and use behavior of scholars under a known constraint of not having easy access to content from the world’s largest scientific publisher.

Finally, I’d be remiss if I did not compliment the many people from the UC system and CDL who produced the Negotiating with scholarly journal publishers toolkit. I know that several people in the CSU Libraries are poring over it right now. Kudos!