Practice questions for judgment heuristics

1.) One always makes a conscious choice to use a judgment heuristic.

2.) People who overestimate the likelihood of two things happening because they can easily remember cases of the two things happening exhibit the availability heuristic.

3.) When one ignores the prior probability of an event when evaluating

new information one is using the representativeness heuristic.

4.) In the availability heuristic one uses ease of recall to estimate the frequency examples of an event in one's experiences.

5.) If one shows an insensitivity to sample size, one is exhibiting

the anchoring heuristic.

6.) The representativeness heuristic measures the frequency of an event by judging the typicality of that event given one's concepts and schemas.

7.) The answers given by judgment heuristics are always false.

For the following stories, tell me (1) if a judgment heuristic is being used and (2) if a judgment heuristic is being used what judgment is it.

1.) Bob hears some good things about the Liverpool Cavaliers from his buddies at the Pittsburgh, PA department of sanitation. Based upon He then wagers heavily on the Cavaliers to take the nationals in England.

(2) Bob's wager seems based upon the views of his buddies at the sanitation department. It is unlikely that Bob's buddies provide Bob with predictive evidence to support favoring the Cavaliers over the other teams in the nations. Hence, Bob anchors on certain features of this inferential context in estimating the likelihood of the Cavaliers winning the nationals. In this case, Bob anchors on irrelevant features of his context or features having little predicative value in estimating his likelihood. Bob seems to rely, therefore, on cognitive anchoring and adjustment.

2.) Bob observes the number 5 has come up on the casino roulette table twice in ten spins. Bob infers that the roulette wheel is rigged.

(2) Bob seems to base his inference that the roulette wheel is rigged based upon the seeming lack of randomness in the outcomes of the last ten spins. Bob seems to expect that a random process, like outcomes of spinning the roulette wheel, should look random. Thus, Bob seems to estimate the likelihood of the last ten spins based upon it's typicality given his schema of a random process. As a result, Bob likely uses the representativeness heuristic.

3.) Based upon the results of a single study published in the journal Science Bob believes that there may be a genetic component to how much and how easily people feel anxiety.

(2) Bob bases his inference on report of careful experimental evidence in a reputable scientific journal. His inference seems to draw the modest conclusion that this evidence increases the likelihood of a genetic component in people's tendency to feel anxiety.

4.) Bob is convinced that his girlfriend is cheating on him. He hires a private detective to follow her every move. After two months the detective reports that Bob's girlfriend isn't seeing anyone. Bob reasons that either she must have "got to" the detective or he didn't really follow her.

(2) Bob seems to resist modifying or rejecting his belief that his girlfriend is cheating on him despite the detective's evidence that Bob's belief is false. Thus, Bob seems to exhibit belief perseverance.

5.) Bob reads in the National Enquirer that Mini-me is "back on the booze". He thinks "Mini-me must have a drinking problem."

(2) Bob's inference seems based upon the report of the notoriously unreliable National Enquirer. It is unlikely that the Enquirer provides Bob with predictive evidence to support his forming a belief that Mini-me has a drinking problem. Hence, Bob anchors on certain features of this inferential context in estimating the likelihood of Mini-me's drinking problem. In this case, Bob anchors on irrelevant features of his context or features having little predicative value in estimating his likelihood. Bob seems to rely, therefore, on cognitive anchoring and adjustment.

6.) Bob reasons that since he cannot imagine a computer that can beat the best chess player in the world, it must be impossible to build such a computer.

(2) Bob seems to estimate the likelihood of a computer beating the best chess player in the world based upon the difficulty he has in imagining, given his experiences, a computer beating the best chess player in the world. Thus, Bob seems to employ the availability heuristic since he uses his remembered experiences as his sample. He estimates the frequency of computer beating the best chess player given his experience through ease of imaginability. Since Bob finds it difficult to imagine such a computer he seems to infer that the probability of such a computer is low.