Overconfidence Lab

 

 

Lab Instructions

The purpose of this lab is to have you take an alternative look at subjective certainty or confidence and it's potential role in epistemology.  Many epistemologists, like Descartes, rely upon subjective certainty or confidence in their conceptions of knowledge.  This lab asks you to look empirically at the relationship between one's subjective sense of confidence in a belief and the objective likelihood of it being true.  The hope is that you can gain some empirical perspective of the practice of defining knowledge in light of subjective  certainty or confidence.

You will start by taking the "certainty quiz" on beachboard.  The quiz consists of your answering 20 questions about current and historical facts.  You must complete the quiz once you begin, and you are limited to 25 minutes.  The instructions for the quiz are as follows:

This is not a graded quiz, nor is it a measure of intelligence. Rather, you will be asked a number of questions, and you should answer with a low (first) and a high (second) guess. Your guesses should indicate a range such that you are 90% sure that the correct value answer for the questions) lies within that range. For instance, if you were asked, "how old is Wallis?", you might answer between 37 and 45. Try to give your best estimate of the range, do not over or under estimate. Likewise, do not consult reference material or try to scroll backwards during the quiz. You must complete the quiz now that you have started it. Beachboard only allows 25 minutes for you to complete the quiz. The actual numbers (answers) will be given at the end of the quiz so that you can complete the lab.

After you have completed the quiz, beachboard gives you the correct answers. You will have to manually score your certainty quiz using the answers provided by beachboard after the quiz.  Anytime the answer given falls outside the range defined by your low and high guesses, the answer counts as a surprise.  You will need to enter the number of surprises out of twenty when you complete the certainty lab later on beachboard.

Once you have completed and graded your certainty quiz, the next step is to read the article in the left-hand menu.  Finally, you log onto beachboard and and answer the lab questions.  Have fun!!